Roger Roots’ $5,000 bet that glaciers will still exist in Glacier National Park in 2030


Date of offer: September 20, 2015

I love it when pro-government alarmists make precise, specific predictions and threats about what will happen if government doesn’t get more power over us. Socialists and trusters of government have been making preposterous claims about future scarcity, natural disasters and economic turmoil for years. Just surrender even more power to the world’s governments, they claim, and these future certain catastrophes will be averted.

The anti-capitalist writer Naomi Klein claims that if capitalism isn’t immediately abolished or arrested, average temperatures will soon increase by “4 to 6 degrees Celsius.” See here. Former (Bill) Clinton adviser Bill Curry predicts today (see here) that moose and shrimp may soon disappear from Maine.

Such predictions almost always prove ridiculous over time. (Socialist governments worldwide are terrible for the environment (see here). And even if climate catastrophe were approaching, the best fix would be for the private sector to unleash its ingenuity on the problem. (See this recent report of a privately-constructed air cleaning tower in Rotterdam, Netherlands which purifies 1 million cubic feet of air per hour.)

I am reminded of the famous $10,000 bet between pro-government scholar Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon (one of my favorite writers) in 1980. Ehrlich–like many voices of alarm of the period–predicted that growing populations would cause resource depletion and higher prices of five commodities within 10 years. Simon (who was wise in the ways of market dynamics and human ingenuity) took Ehrlich up on the bet and famously won $10,000 in 1990. See here.

The government’s messaging regarding “climate change” at Glacier National Park repeatedly predicts that GNP’s glaciers will all be gone by the year 2030. See here, here, and here. That’s 15 years from now. This prediction appears throughout the Park on signs, brochures and even in the Park’s official films.

In the tradition of the Simon/Ehrlich bet in 1980, I offer the following bet:

If Glacier National Park’s glaciers and snowfields have completely disappeared by any date in the year 2030, I will pay $5000 (U.S.) to anyone who agrees to pay me $5,000 if there remains any visible glaciers or snowfields in Glacier National Park by every date of that year. This bet will not be conditioned or voided by any intervening governmental or legislative events. (Thus, a payment of $5,000 will be made regardless of whether the U.S. government or any other government does or does not “do something” about the alleged climate issue).

–Roger I. Roots

Anyone taking this bet must notify me and post his acceptance of the offer in some public forum. (Only one individual may accept, so step right up before this opportunity is taken by someone else.)

Who wants to make some easy money?