In February 2014, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an overlooked report on the “Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act.” The Report provided updates of earlier estimates, and by February 2014 the CBO was able to draw on more accurate data than the CBO had cited in its earlier reports.
CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor—given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive.
The reduction in CBO’s projections of hours worked represents a decline in the number of full-time-equivalent workers of about 2.0 million in 2017, rising to about 2.5 million in 2024.
Of course, the passage of time often reveals that government programs end up costing much more than politicians originally estimate. We predict that the CBO’s estimate of a 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent decline in total hours worked will turn out to be optimistic.
